Overview of Global Chlor-Alkali & Vinyls Industry
Technological improvements in Europe, China's environmental regulations and the increasing ethylene capacity in the United States have all created uncertainty in the global chlor-alkali market. The European chlor-alkali industry has gradually resumed its expansion after suffering shutdown chlor-alkali devices with mercury method in 2017. By the beginning of 2018, European chlorine production capacity reached 11.267 million tons which decreased by 900,000 tons in 2017. It is said that the new capacity by 2022 may amount to 75% of the elimination production capacity. According to analysis, the capacity utilization and profitability of global chlor-alkali industry will rise gradually by 2023 due to strong demand coupled with insufficient capacity expansion. Asian caustic soda consumption is increasing significantly. Japan and South Korea consume more per capita than that of Western Europe. China is the biggest consumer of chlor-alkali products and its caustic soda consumption is expected to be close to that of US per capita in 2028 with an increase of nearly 60%. Turning to PVC, with the gradual expansion of US PVC production capacity, a large number of low-priced PVC will flood the market, which may lead to further shuffling of the industry.
July 2018- AkzoNobel announced to upgrade production line for chlorine and caustic soda at their Rotterdam chlor-alkali plant. New construction is predicted to begin in 2019 and is anticipated to be completed by 2021. This strategic move will help AkzoNobel to meet the rising demand for chlor-alkali products across the globe.
April 2018- Kemira announced to invest around USD 58.5 Million to expand the manufacturing capacity of chlor-alkali at its Finland based plant. This capacity expansion is predicted to be under operation by the end of the 2018. This capacity expansion will help to meet the increasing demand for chlor-alkali chemicals by pulp mill and other industrial sector.
February 2018- Westlake Chemical Corporation, a US based leading supplier of petrochemicals, polymers, and building products announced to expand chlor-alkali, VCM, and PVC production capacities at facilities in Germany and Louisiana. With this increase in production capacity the company will able to meet the increasing demand for chlor-alkali derived products across the globe.
January 2018- Malaysian based Chemical Company announced to invest around USD 10.03 Million to raise the chlor-alkali products output at its plant in Pasir Gudang, Johor. This investment will help company to raise the production capacity of chlor-alkali products by 50%.
Review of 2018 Caustic Soda Market
In recent years, the global caustic soda pattern has undergone profound changes. Europe phased out mercury devices, with the result of reduction of 1.5 million tons of caustic soda, which made Europe a net importer of caustic soda. The rise of US shale gas has reduced the cost of chlor-alkali manufacturing, which increased competitiveness and made caustic soda exports grow. The world's caustic soda production capacity is about 94 million tons in 2018 and China amounts for 44%, nearly 41.41 million tons. Meanwhile, the global caustic soda capacity expansion slows down, while the demand is increasing steadily increased, and the operation rate recovered to around 80%. In addition, emerging markets are booming. Areas like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and other SEA areas have strong demand for caustic soda products, with the annual growth of 5-9% and their imports volume is raising up gradually. The demand for caustic soda in NEA areas is increasing at a stable growth rate around 3.5% annually. One more thing is the Alunorte Alumina plant in Brazil whose total capacity is 6.3 million tons, was compelled 50% reduction of capacity by SEMAS in March. It is expected to resume full production in the fourth quarter of 2018, but there has been no sign of recovery so far.
Run Back Over 2018 PVC market
Global economic uncertainty increases due to trade protectionism and unilateralism at present. The world PVC production capacity is about 58 million tons in 2018 and China takes up 42% with about 24.26 million tons. America remains the position of one of the most competitive PVC production sites in the world. North America exported 1.465 million tons of PVC, with an increase of 188,000 tons at a growth of 14.7% over the same period last year from Jan-July 2018. As future its ethylene projects put into operation in the near future, the PVC exportation scope may increase. However, under the trade war between China and the US and the U.S.-Turkey diplomatic conflict, it is revealed that the proportion of US PVC powder exporting to China and Turkey will continue to decline, and its EDC export volume is limited as well. In addition, the large devaluation of Turkish lira reduces domestic PVC purchasing power, which may cause Europe to switch to other PVC markets. China's PVC production capacity is closely related to environmental protection policies. Long running and high energy consumption membrane polar electrolyzers are forced to transform. Enterprises will be shut down if they cannot meet the standards till the end of 2022. Besides, manufacturers in Shandong province are encouraged to lengthen chlorine industry chain by developing integration of salinization and petrochemicals and integration of salinization and coalification internally by 2022. Manufacturers who cannot achieve Chlor-Alkali balance till 2022 will be closed or adjust producing operation forcibly. In Northeast Asia, domestic demand for PVC in Japan is likely to increase given 2020 Tokyo Olympics, so PVC exportation from Japan may has a minor decline in 2018 and 2019. Unemployment rate in South Korea has risen and the development of construction and building materials industry has slowed down. The domestic PVC demand is predicted to shrink. India currently has been the biggest PVC importer for Japan, followed by China and Vietnam. The Indian government is pushing the reform program of public construction, goods and services tax (GST), which will make PVC demand continue to grow.
13th International Chlor-Alkali & Vinyls Conference is establishing a business communication bridge according to the real needs in chlor-alkali & vinyls industry chain. We will illustrate the latest global capacity information, analyze future trend of chlor-alkali market and spread cutting-edge innovations. Our 13th ICAVC will be an excellent platform for you to pursue new investment opportunities and expand business landscape. We will provide you with plenty time and resources and draw a new blueprint for 2019 chlor-Alkali & vinyls industry together!
Enmore is sincerely inviting you to join us in February 2019! Looking forward to see you!
One and Half Day | Feb 25-26th | Monday-Tuesday
Session I：Global Chlor-Alkali industry Dynamic Hot News
Global Economic outlook
• Prospect of Oil Price and its effects on the industry, eg. electricity, regional capacity expansion plans
• Overview of the chlor-alkali market
• Economic competition space between Calcium Carbide based PVC and Ethylene based PVC under Shale gas revolution and low oil price
• How is it likely to impact global trade?
Interpreting China Environment Policies and its effects on CAV industry
• Probable affected enterprises and its capacity & approval status of new projects
• It is encouraged to extend chlorine industry chain and develop high-value chlorine items. The Chlorine consumption will increase from 59% to 85%.
• The possibility of realization of closing factories who are not able to balance Chlor and Alkali till 2022
New opinions on Chlor-Alkali Balance
• Cost comparison of coal based PVC, Natural gas based PVC and crude oil based PVC
• ECU price cycle and influencing factors
• Analysis of future chlor-alkali balance trend
Development of EDC & VCM market
• 2019-2022 EDC & VCM capacity and Supply & Demand
• EDC & VCM new projects（eg. SCAC new PVC project process）
• EDC & VCM price conjecture
• The importance of integration of ethylene and PVC
• Will VCM be a new profit growth pool in the raw and processed material competition？
Discuss PVC diversity development
• Current PVC types、nature and functions
• Typical special PVC resin nature、functions and preparation methods
• Downstream demanding driving force of special PVC
• Does differentiation of PVC development mean diversification and high-end orient？
SessionⅡ：Global new projects and Regional Market Analysis
Look into Global Caustic soda market
• Global caustic soda trading analysis
• North America/ Middle East Caustic soda new capacity and operation rate
• With unstable political environment, ME caustic soda international trading analysis
• Main driving markets and forces of caustic soda
• Caustic soda international pricing system
Global Vinlys industry outlook
• Ethylene export and PVC new capacity and its exporting trend with lightening and diversification of raw materials
• Analyzing supply and demand of PVC types in Western countries and ME market
• PVC international pricing system
• Global PVC Trading flow
• Future PVC downstream driving markets and factors
Opportunities and Challenges of Indian CAV industry
• Caustic Soda and PVC Demand and Supply changes
• Development and Plans of new projects
• Indian Anti-Dumping code and its ongoing impacts
• Downstream drivers development in India
Oceania CAV market development
• Market dynamics of Australian salt industry
• Oceania CAV supply trend
• Downstream driver and demand variation
Revealing SEA CAV industry
• Vista of SEA caustic soda and PVC spot market
• New CAV capacity projects and plans
• CAV pricing system and influencing factors
• Intending demand and downstream driving factors
Disclosing NEA CAV international trading (Japan, South Korea & Taiwan)
• Approaching Maintenance Scheduling
• Unborn projects and plans
• price mechanism and relationship with International price
• will NEA EDC fill in the shortage of Asian EDC demand
• Prospective caustic soda and PVC exportation
SessionⅢ：Chlor-Alkali techniques and downstream drivers development
Foreground of China CAV industry
• 2019-2020 China caustic soda and PVC price trend
• PVC new projects process
• Forecast of China CAV exportation with encouragement of “One Belt, One Road”
• Based on cost analysis, can China CAV players keep stable profit?
• Mercury-Free catalysts industrialization process and impacts
The role of Alumina global CAV market
• 2019 Alumina supply and demand and operation rate
• 2019 estimation of Alumina caustic soda consumption (Prediction effects from Alunorte Alumina resuming full production）
• Driving force from downstream Building Material Market
Future development of Pulp industry
• 2019-2020 caustic soda consumption of pulp industry
• Viscose fiber market driving force
• Impetus from Pulp & paper market
• Prospect of main pulp markets
Shipping cost changes with cargo diversification
• Caustic soda main shipping routes
• Main factors of caustic soda shipping costs
Panel Discussion: Exploring world political influence
• What effects on CAV trade flow will Economic Sanction to Iran bring as Iran exported a large number of caustic sodato India?
• Are anti-dumping cases on PVC in China and India really in remission?
• Effects of Ongoing Trade war between China and US & US and Turkey
