会议日程
Macro Economy & Energy Industrial Pattern
Macro Economy and Global Energy Pattern
◆ Main sources and transportation ways of crudes import of China
◆ Cross-country pipelines (already finished, under construction, planning)
◆ Status of Chinese SPR and domestic crude consumption demands outlook
Crude Oil Import of America and its Export Outlook
Donald Trump, during the election period, promised that he would open federal lands to oil and gas drilling and lift the effective ban on offshore drilling outside the Gulf of Mexico. How and when would the US new energy policy affect the global market?
◆ Current US import channels and shipping lines involved
◆ Overview of shale oil & traditional oil field producing capacity, output and new projects
China’s Independent Refineries
Status
◆ How did the independent refiners use their crudes import quota in 2016? (crudes procurement habits, oil type preferred, import channels and shipping demands)
◆ How will Beijing release the two licenses and quotas in 2017? (total quotas and release details, who already got the two licenses and who are about to be endowed?)
◆ Status of Shandong teapot refineries: producing capacity, products, newly-built or extension projects
Outlook
◆ Top China’s independent refiners are seeking for overseas investment and cooperation, in order to optimize their sourcing channels and overall strategies arrangement. How will this impact global petrochemical market?
◆ What are the difficulties these refiners may encounter when trying to taking chartering job? Will medium and small size tankers be favored by them?
◆ What changes and opportunities will be brought by these new players? How to adjust ourselves to these changes and seize the opportunities?
DPP Tanker Market
VLCC Market
The VLCC market concluded 2016 on a strong note, with average earnings during December surging to a nine‐month high of approximately $62,184/day. Despite a 30% y/y decline, 2016’s average earnings of $46,591/day represented the second‐strongest year since 2009 – and the third strongest year of the past decade. Progressing into 2017, the market appears set for stronger headwinds, however, with the tenuous specter of a global crude production cuts and ongoing fleet growth presenting a challenge to earnings.
◆ VLCC shipping market outlook: changes in fleet supply, freights and shipping lines
◆Total tonnage changes of major VLCC owners: who is taking the lead? Who is the promising newcomer?
◆ Impact from other size tankers
Iran Focus
◆ Producing capacity of major Iranian refiners
◆ Iranian oil export outlook: trading habits, cargo flow, shipping lines involved, vessel types involved
◆ Iran-China shipping line outlook
Aframax and Other DPP Tankers Market
◆ Status of Aframax market (NB orders on hand and tonnages to be delivered in 2017, tonnage for DEMO )
◆ Status of major Aframax owners, tonnage-supply on major shipping lines, freights trends
◆ Some LR tankers were put into DPP market, changes and influences of these “swing tonnage”
◆ Outlook of other DPP tankers
SE Asia Crudes Import Outlook
◆ Newly-added oil output in SE Asia and its crude oil import channels
◆ Main trading lines and its shipping demands
CPP Tanker Market
Export of China’s Product Oil
Recently, China Ministry of Commerce released the first round of fuel export quota of 2017, which was cut by 40% y-o-y. Only for state-owned oil companies: Sinopec, CNPC, CNOOC and Sinochem Oil, were on the list and no independent refiners were included.
◆ Independent refiners’ absence on the first round list really shocked many people. Will Beijing insist it or change later in 2017?
◆ If this continued in the long term, will crudes import demand slow down in the future?
Clean Tanker Market of International Shipping Lines
◆ Status of MR, LR1 & LR2 Ship Market Outlook (Fleet Supply, Freights)
Naphtha Import in Asia
◆ Rising naphtha production within the region and propane as alternative petrochemical feedstock
◆ The potential for a sharp rise in US supplies of NGLs
◆ Will Chinese buyers prefer FOB price and become international charterers in 2017?
Clean Tanker Market of China Domestic
◆ Domestic Product Tanker Market Outlook (Fleet Supply, Freights)
◆ Costal Shipping Line Focus (Fleet Supply of Major Tonnage-Level Ships)
◆ Seasonal & Regional Fleet Supply Differences
◆ Costal ‘Swing’ tonnages’
Opportunities and Challenges
NB, Demo, S&P Market
◆ Tanker orders on hand
◆ soon-to-be-delivered tonnage in 2017: vessel type, ship owner, shipping line
◆ Demolition and S&P Market
How to Optimize Operation Costs
BWM Convention: The IMO’s Ballast Water Management Convention, adopted in 2004, reached its criteria for ratification on September 8, 2016, and will enter into force following 12 months.
Bunker requirement：China has enforced the use of fuel with a maximum sulphur content of 0.5% on ships berthing at six more key ports (Guangzhou, Huanghua, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Tianjin and Zhuhai) starting 2017, extending from five ports(Shanghai, Nantong, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Suzhou since April and Shenzhen since October 2016) that have implemented the regulation in 2016.
◆ How to spend the least to be in accordance with the new BWM convention?
◆ Interpretation of detailed requirements for emission control area (ECA), ways to optimize operation costs and status
China's Major Oil Tanker Port and its Ancillary Infrastructure
◆ Status of main oil tanker port: Location, Berth Conditions and Special requirements
◆ Statistics on port stay of major ports
◆ Oil storage tank/Pipeline/ Other ancillary infrastructure
