Time：2015-05-28 -05-28location：beijing beijingshi
The year of 2014 witnessed the constant decrease of global oil price, high extraction costs of US shale oil, OPEC claiming no reduction in oil output and conflicts in the Mid-East. How will the international oil price change in 2015?
According to OPEC, world crude oil demand will reach 92.3 million barrels per day and Asia will be the biggest market driver. As China and India are constantly increasing their SPR, when will their demand reach the peak?
Crude oil futures are soon to be launched in Shanghai FTZ. How will it enhance China’s pricing power in the global oil market?
By the end of March, NB orders for VLCC reach 99 and there are 72 Suezmax orders. Meanwhile, 15 to 20 FSO tankers came back to the shipping market. Will all these factors shorten the boom of oil tanker market? Demolition subsidy and other policies from Chinese government encourage Chinese ship owners to build large crude oil carriers. Some Chinese oil companies even started to raise their own VLCC fleet. How will Chinese VLCC ship owners impact the global oil tanker shipping market.
Product tanker shipping capacity is on a continuous increase and MR and LR1&2 are greatly favored. The increasing demand for longer distance transportation of product oil and the decline in the European and Japanese refinery field are the two factors that spur ship owners to have more LR tankers. By the end of December, 2014, the number of LR1&2 tankers reached 583. On the other hand, as overcapacity of product oil is already a severe problem, China is in want of enlarging its product oil exportation. How will product tanker market develop in the future?
1. Oil Company/Trader 30%
2. Ship Owner 29%
3. Broker/Agent/Forwarder 16%
4. Terminal/Port Authority 9%
5. Others 16%
Policy Analysis: the ‘New Normal’, OBOR, crude oil futures
? How will low global oil price and the One Belt and One Road policy impact China's new energy trading pattern
? Latest info of four Free Trade Zones, how will shipping companies benefit from them?
? The establishment of Shanghai Futures Exchange and crude oil futures, which are about to be released, bring China greater say in the global crude oil market. Will it encounter problems?
Global oil market & Teapot refinery status in China
? New features of global oil trading flow
? Changes in China’s crude oil import pattern Key words: SPR, Low Oil Price, ‘New Normal’, Import Channels
? China’s teapot refineries: distribution, producing capacity updates of new projects
? Feedstock import: What are the new changes? When will there be new breakthroughs in crude oil import qualification? How will it impact oil and shipping market?
VLCC & Aframax shipping market
? Status quo and outlook of VLCC: Capacity, Freight, NB & Demo
? VLCC over 15 years’ old: Demolition VS FPSO, how to achieve more benefits
? Status quo and outlook of Aframax : Capacity, Freight, domestic & overseas shipping lane
Outlook of Suezmax & Panamax shipping market
? To which extent will the construction of Nicaragua Canal and expansion of Panama Canal reduce the costs of USG-Asia oil transportation?
? How will shipping volume change in the Suez Canal and other canals?
? Panamax & Suezmax: Freight & Capacity
India Focus: crude oil import and shipping market
? Indian importation of crude oil demand
? Exportation of petrochemicals
? Status and outlook of oil tanker market
Domestic oil shipping market – Zhoushan Ship Owner Focus
? Status quo of shipping companies
? Total number of vessels and shipping capacity
? Yangtze River & coastal shipping lane freights
? Frequently-occurred problems in domestic oil shipping market
International product oil shipping market
? MR: status quo and outlook of Freight & Capacity
? LR1 & LR2: status quo and outlook of Freight & Capacity
? China’s product oil exportation: status & development
Status of Shandong teapot refineries and outlook of oil logistics
Sharp decrease appeared in imported fuel oil, great increase in cut-back bitumen; LCO market is springing up, will it be the hot spot in the future?
? Status and trends in feedstock importation
? Status and trends in logistics
Terminal Focus
? China's national oil storage tanks are about to be full, which may restrict its SPR, will it bring new opportunities to independent tank storage companies?
? Coastal oil storage tanks and jetties (status, berth, port stay)
? Can crude oil futures delivery bring actual profits to storage companies?
Panel discussion and Brain storm:
? By then end of 2014, Chinese ship owners have 76 VLCCs. Taking their NB orders into account, the demand gap is about 40 VLCCs according to the “China’s imported crude oil shipped by Chinese fleets" policy. Meanwhile, China’s demolition subsidy policy encourages to build large crude oil carriers. It is expected that more VLCC capacity will enter the market.
? How will constant growing Chinese VLCC capacity influence the world shipping pattern? Do China’s oil companies prefer national vessels?
? Cargo owners seems to prefer T/C recently. Also, some Chinese oil companies are raising their own VLCC fleets.
? How will these new trends challenge the shipping market?
? As the dry bulk market continues to scrape along the bottom while the oil tanker shipping market seems much better, some dry bulk ship owners are watching the oil tanker market like Scorpio Bulkers, which has switched three more newbuilding contracts for capesize bulkers to LR1 product tankers.
? Is it a good time to enter oil tanker shipping market?
Competing with other energies – LPG, LNG
Contact Person: Ms. Daisy Shi
Tel: 86 21 5155 1661
Fax: 86 21 5155 1608
Email: daisyshi@enmore.com
